"You don't have money for proper healthcare despite the Centre sending crores and crores of Rupees to the state. Do you know why that's happening. Because there is a magical elephant sitting in Lucknow who's eating all your money." The stubble is back on Gandhi family scion's face and so is a new found aggression. Rahul Gandhi's election campaign in poll bound Uttar Pradesh is surely creating a flutter. Gone are the days when Rahul needed a rehearsed script to read out from. Though issues raised now are almost the same everywhere he goes, but a new style of rolling up his sleeves and addressing the crowds as "Bhaiya" has made his appeal more convincing. In fact, there is so much anger that he sounds almost like a Leader of the Opposition in Vidhan Sabha.
Even as the BSP is busy sacking ministers and MLA's from the party, the writing is on the wall. Desperate measures by an over confident Mayawati after five years of single party rule in the state. The Brahmins are deserting the BSP every passing day, while the Muslims always look at Maya with suspicion due to her past coalition Govts with the BJP. But Maya is not yet giving up on her social engineering formula. Her staunch vote bank of Dalits coupled with any strong candidate of another caste still remains a winning combination. Hence the arrogance remains.
Samajwadi Party realises that the scenario is a lot different from 2007 when people came out n their own to vote out the SP on the issue of Law and Order. This time people are angry with the BSP Govt, but not so angry to vote them out on their own. If there is no strong candidate in the fray, disgruntled voters may just vote back the sitting MLA. That explains why the SP started their campaign over a month ago. SP Supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav's son Akhilesh has been touring the state since then. SP still remains the only genuine party that can form the Govt on it's own in UP apart from the BSP.
The last to declare their candidates for the elections is the BJP. Hoping to beat the Congress in it's bid to woo the upset Brahmins, the BJP is sitting pretty. If the Brahmins leave the BSP, then their first choice will be BJP otherwise they remain in BSP. Either ways, the majority upper caste vote is expected to be with BJP, if not then the Brahmins who remain in BSP will ensure BSP BJP can form yet another coalition and rule UP. Little surprise that Rajnath Singh and Kalraj Mishra are the poster boys of the party.
Congress too is working on its caste arithmetic. The traditional upper caste vote may have moved to BJP, but a sizeable chunk still remains. If we add a section of Muslim votes and a majority of Kurmi (OBC) vote to their traditional vote, then it does become a healthy figure. Little surprise that UPA decided to grant minority quota of 4.5 % within the OBC quota in Central Govt jobs. Add Chaudhary Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and Muslim leader Rasheed Masood, the quorum seems complete in Western UP. Elevating Beni Prasad Verma to a cabinet minister has gone a long way in winning loyalty of influential Kurmis in Central UP while Padrauna scion RPN Singh represents Kurmis from eastern UP.
Now we have senior Samajwadi Party leaders openly saying that a post poll alliance with Congress is very much possible. This is not so much because the SP is getting jittery about the Congress improving it's tally of 22 from 2007. But it's a carefully planned strategy keeping an eye on the crucial Muslim vote. Azam Khan is back in the SP fold and is spewing venom on the Congress. If the SP can send the message to Muslims that a post poll truck with Congress is on the cards, then the SP becomes the first obvious choice for them.
Not many seniors In the Congress have really understood the SP's game plan. Till Jitin Prasada openly rubbished these claims. A message from Rahul Gandhi's core team member makes it clear that the young guard will not repeat the mistakes of their elders in the past. No wonder Rahul says at every rally that Congress will form the Govt on it's own in UP. If they give any room for such a possibility, then the Muslims would move away and upset their applecart.
The other problem for the Samajwadi Party is the Muslim outfit, Peace Party. This party had done well in over seven Lok Sabha seats of Eastern UP in 2009. They will cause immediate damage to the SP, especially in their bastion of eastern UP. That explains why the SP is going all out in giving the impression that they could join hands with the Congress to form a Govt in UP. This move could help them offset the losses of Peace Party by gaining a small percentage of the minority vote from the Congress.
It's pretty much clear that UP seems headed for a hung assembly. While the BSP and BJP are making no bones about the fact that they could end up as coalition partners if BSP emerges as the single largest party in a hung assembly. This has it's own advantages for both parties, as the upper caste that is upset with BSP may choose to stay with them. That helps the BSP while some sections of Dalits could vote for BJP where there is discontent against the local BSP candidate. Both complementing each other very well politically.
But the political dynamics are exactly the opposite for SP and Congress as mentioned above. This would fritter away any gains made by the Congress is the past few years. And would give back to SP, it's dominance amongst the Muslim community in UP. Something that the SP desperately wants but is unlikely to do so.
So the SP and Congress slug it out for the Muslim vote with Peace Party likely to play spoiler in eastern UP. BJP and Congress at loggerheads over Upper Caste votes with BJP likely to do well in urban centres. And in OBC vote bank, SP will retain Yadavs while Congress and BJP are wooing Kurmis. Congress has Beni Prasad Verma and RPN Singh to showcase as Central ministers while BJP has Uma Bharti, Vinay Katiyar and a very newsy Babu Singh Kushwaha.
So the stage is all set.
Let the Games begin.
The Brahmins were never a votebank of the BSP to begin with. Their posturing about their drifting away from the from the BSP is another ploy of the Savarnas to show that they too count in UP politics. The average voting turnout in UP is a measly 45-50%. Almost all the parties are wooing the Dalits (21% of the population) and Muslims (18% of the population) as there is a high turnout from both these communities.
ReplyDeleteThe only issue in UP is "jatiya samikaran" or caste arithmetic. While almost all parties have conducted surveys to get this part right, the results could throw a whole lot of surprises. The crucial Muslim vote is not going en bloc to the SP. However it will be the biggest beneficiary. Unlike in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the Muslims who had voted largely for the Congress, have already started returning to the SP fold.
A post poll tie up between the Congress and the SP looks likely. Akhilesh Yadav even suspended a party member who showed black flags to Rahul Gandhi. However the Congress will not have the numbers necessary to support the SP in case it is in fighting reach of the magical number of 202. SP can only hope to form the government if it crosses 160 on its own.
The mood to change the BSP government is quite strong in the state amongst all communities except the Chamars. Chamars are rock solidly behind the BSP. The Chamars are present in all 403 constituencies and the voter strength ranges from 15000 to 60000 in some constituencies. The non chamar Dalit vote is going to all the 4 principal parties - SP, BSP, Congress and BJP. The mood to change the BSP does not exactly amount to a reversal in the SP's fortunes. The anti incumbency votes are not consolidating in the favour of the SP.
In at least 300 constituencies it is a straight fight between SP and BSP. It is quite amusing to see hyperventilating TV anchors showing the fight in UP between Mayawati (BSP) and Rahul Gandhi (Congress). While there is no doubt that a "resurgent " Congress wil increase its vote share in UP, it will not exactly translate into seats. While the Congress managed a measly 8 % vote share in 2007, it is expected to grow to 11-12%. However it is going to face a humiliating rout in their strongholds of Rae Bareili-Sultanpur-Amethi. Except for Amita Singh, the Congress will post a blank in all 3 districts. In the light of these circumstances I personally want to give the Congress 15-20 seats but I will not be uncharitable. The fact is that the Congress does not have the "feet on the street" to mobilise the people to vote inits favour. While there is an undercurrent of support for the Congress, it will not translate into seats.
The BJP is doing very well in cities and will improve upon its tally of 2007. While it is almost non existent in the rural areas, the urban seats will pad up its tally to close to 80. That leaves us with the BSP and SP. SP is well poised to be the single largest party. "Khichdi sarkaar banegi". Else we will see another election soon.
My final estimate for the upcoming UP polls is something like this:
SP 140
BSP 130
BJP 75
Congress 25
RLD 15
Independents 25
Very enlightening response Mr Mathew. It seems you have thorough knowledge about the situation in UP. However I may add that BSP gave tickets to 86 Brahmins and 40 of them won in 2007. So thats a pretty good average for Brahmins winning from an essentially Dalit cadre based party. They also won 59 out of the 89 reserved seats in the state. Since these add up to about 100, the remaining 106 seats came from other castes and Muslims. So that shows how upset the people were with SP rule.
ReplyDeleteOne aspect that Mr Mathew must take into consideration is the sizeable Kurmi vote in Central UP. Congress is banking heavily on this vote bank to tide them through this time. Hence I would beg to differ on the number of seats given to Congress, they would probably double their tally from 2007.
As far as Congress and SP tying up after elections is concerned, it could very much be possible. But the Congress certainly doesn't want that impression going out right now for reasons mentioned above.
Echoing the same with few amendments Mr.Mathew as per your calculations with "jatiya sammekaran " or caste arithmetic's the Brahmin's vote plays a major role in UP as i agree that kalraj mishra & rajnath singh remain the poster boys of BJP so a slight array of confusion remains for Muslim Voters across pradesh ,here again muslim arithmetics of 19.3 % also plays a vital role against dalit votes who are staunch voters of BSP ,now muslim's caste sytem is also divided into shiya's & sunni's where shiyaa's are literate enough to know the tug of war for there rights for last 1000 yrs between Satrap's and Dalits's where dalit's have emerged smartly in last fifty years with the help of ambedkar's law written in there favour (making 100 meters race 20-30 meter for themselves and there brotherhood) meanwhile they are gradually replacing traditional feudal landowner's(satarap's) with dalit's encroaching to land of savarna's ;as land is termed as power to almighty as seen in last 6000 yrs of history all great war's been held or introduced only because of "merey desh kee Dhartee" which is directly proportional to the symbol of power and law in the land , coming back to muslim arithmetics shia's know they are safe with SP and Satrap's of UP so there vote of around 4.5 % apart from sunnee's comes to SP but again in sunnee's they have a different caste structure Maulvee's are inclined to SP but Kasai's,ansari's (julahey)still have an internal conflict over whom to support whether its hathee or cycle , rahul gandhi decoded this structure and promised all Jullah's to come to delhi for a permanent employement but still SP has given them huge promises as employment from home itself , so message is loud and clear that Muslim Voters play a major role across Pradesh for SP and congress however some of there caste structure will vote BSP but internally they have aligned with SP supremo ,coming back to brahmin's they will probably vote for BSP not BJP as most of there powerful leader's and revenue generators like Ramveer Upadhyay are still in protection of Mayawati despite all scam's and scandal's crowned with lokayukta so Brahmin's position is still doubtful in upcoming elections ,if naresh agarwal is been crowned in SP thats just to convince baniya or vanik samaj to be attracted to SP vote bank; yes offcourse sacking of MS from spokesperson was not a wrong sign but a double yellow signal to Thakurs or Satrap's to pressurise entire savarna's(highy includes brahmin's) to join SP votebank , another hurdle for SP along with peace party comes with Mamta TMC fielding over 200 candidates in UP and if they are able to make 4-5 seats and rest cutting of vote bank from SP candidates with bangaldeshi muslims & bengali pandits of UP in there favour could be a huge damage to SP supremo in his flight to rail mantree in kendra cabinet .
DeleteOverall Message is loud and clear ,"short & crisp" for Satrap's to convince Pandit's across pradesh to vote for SP either by Hook or by crook otherwise get ready for a hung parliament,or a re-election by august , or a BJP -BSP led coalition govt in UP .