"You don't have money for proper healthcare despite the Centre sending crores and crores of Rupees to the state. Do you know why that's happening. Because there is a magical elephant sitting in Lucknow who's eating all your money." The stubble is back on Gandhi family scion's face and so is a new found aggression. Rahul Gandhi's election campaign in poll bound Uttar Pradesh is surely creating a flutter. Gone are the days when Rahul needed a rehearsed script to read out from. Though issues raised now are almost the same everywhere he goes, but a new style of rolling up his sleeves and addressing the crowds as "Bhaiya" has made his appeal more convincing. In fact, there is so much anger that he sounds almost like a Leader of the Opposition in Vidhan Sabha.
Even as the BSP is busy sacking ministers and MLA's from the party, the writing is on the wall. Desperate measures by an over confident Mayawati after five years of single party rule in the state. The Brahmins are deserting the BSP every passing day, while the Muslims always look at Maya with suspicion due to her past coalition Govts with the BJP. But Maya is not yet giving up on her social engineering formula. Her staunch vote bank of Dalits coupled with any strong candidate of another caste still remains a winning combination. Hence the arrogance remains.
Samajwadi Party realises that the scenario is a lot different from 2007 when people came out n their own to vote out the SP on the issue of Law and Order. This time people are angry with the BSP Govt, but not so angry to vote them out on their own. If there is no strong candidate in the fray, disgruntled voters may just vote back the sitting MLA. That explains why the SP started their campaign over a month ago. SP Supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav's son Akhilesh has been touring the state since then. SP still remains the only genuine party that can form the Govt on it's own in UP apart from the BSP.
The last to declare their candidates for the elections is the BJP. Hoping to beat the Congress in it's bid to woo the upset Brahmins, the BJP is sitting pretty. If the Brahmins leave the BSP, then their first choice will be BJP otherwise they remain in BSP. Either ways, the majority upper caste vote is expected to be with BJP, if not then the Brahmins who remain in BSP will ensure BSP BJP can form yet another coalition and rule UP. Little surprise that Rajnath Singh and Kalraj Mishra are the poster boys of the party.
Congress too is working on its caste arithmetic. The traditional upper caste vote may have moved to BJP, but a sizeable chunk still remains. If we add a section of Muslim votes and a majority of Kurmi (OBC) vote to their traditional vote, then it does become a healthy figure. Little surprise that UPA decided to grant minority quota of 4.5 % within the OBC quota in Central Govt jobs. Add Chaudhary Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and Muslim leader Rasheed Masood, the quorum seems complete in Western UP. Elevating Beni Prasad Verma to a cabinet minister has gone a long way in winning loyalty of influential Kurmis in Central UP while Padrauna scion RPN Singh represents Kurmis from eastern UP.
Now we have senior Samajwadi Party leaders openly saying that a post poll alliance with Congress is very much possible. This is not so much because the SP is getting jittery about the Congress improving it's tally of 22 from 2007. But it's a carefully planned strategy keeping an eye on the crucial Muslim vote. Azam Khan is back in the SP fold and is spewing venom on the Congress. If the SP can send the message to Muslims that a post poll truck with Congress is on the cards, then the SP becomes the first obvious choice for them.
Not many seniors In the Congress have really understood the SP's game plan. Till Jitin Prasada openly rubbished these claims. A message from Rahul Gandhi's core team member makes it clear that the young guard will not repeat the mistakes of their elders in the past. No wonder Rahul says at every rally that Congress will form the Govt on it's own in UP. If they give any room for such a possibility, then the Muslims would move away and upset their applecart.
The other problem for the Samajwadi Party is the Muslim outfit, Peace Party. This party had done well in over seven Lok Sabha seats of Eastern UP in 2009. They will cause immediate damage to the SP, especially in their bastion of eastern UP. That explains why the SP is going all out in giving the impression that they could join hands with the Congress to form a Govt in UP. This move could help them offset the losses of Peace Party by gaining a small percentage of the minority vote from the Congress.
It's pretty much clear that UP seems headed for a hung assembly. While the BSP and BJP are making no bones about the fact that they could end up as coalition partners if BSP emerges as the single largest party in a hung assembly. This has it's own advantages for both parties, as the upper caste that is upset with BSP may choose to stay with them. That helps the BSP while some sections of Dalits could vote for BJP where there is discontent against the local BSP candidate. Both complementing each other very well politically.
But the political dynamics are exactly the opposite for SP and Congress as mentioned above. This would fritter away any gains made by the Congress is the past few years. And would give back to SP, it's dominance amongst the Muslim community in UP. Something that the SP desperately wants but is unlikely to do so.
So the SP and Congress slug it out for the Muslim vote with Peace Party likely to play spoiler in eastern UP. BJP and Congress at loggerheads over Upper Caste votes with BJP likely to do well in urban centres. And in OBC vote bank, SP will retain Yadavs while Congress and BJP are wooing Kurmis. Congress has Beni Prasad Verma and RPN Singh to showcase as Central ministers while BJP has Uma Bharti, Vinay Katiyar and a very newsy Babu Singh Kushwaha.
So the stage is all set.
Let the Games begin.
